unforum
a.r.g.b.b

Welcome!
 New users, PLEASE read these forum guidelines. New posters, SEARCH before posting and read these rules before posting your killer new campaign. New players may also wish to peruse the ARG Player Tutorial.All users must abide by the Terms of Service.
This week sponsored by:

You?

Why do we need your help?
Announcements
 Your continued support keeps uF running!

 The time now is Sat May 25, 2013 9:15 pm All times are UTC - 6 View posts in this forum since last visit View unanswered posts in this forum Calendar
 Page 2 of 15 [225 Posts] Goto page: Previous 1, 2, 3, 4, ..., 13, 14, 15  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15  Next
Author Message
thebruce
Dances With Wikis

Joined: 16 Aug 2004
Posts: 6776
Location: Kitchener, Ontario

if there's an infinite number, there's an equal chance of a sequence definitely occurring as there is with it not possibly occurring at all... it's like division by 0... hehe

well, not exactly like division by 0, but as strange a concept to grasp...
_________________
@4DFiction/@Wikibruce/Contact
ARGFest 2012 - Toronto was awesome! ARGFest.com

Posted: Sun Dec 19, 2004 7:54 pm
Olorin
Unfettered

Joined: 04 Nov 2004
Posts: 612
Location: Gainesville, FL

 tanner wrote: i take the first 3 out in one minute, the second 3 takes half minute the third in a quarter minute etc --- ill have em all done in 2 minutes But as has been said --- back to topic

Yeah,
back to the topic:
what did the number 3 did wrong to be left out?
F.O.R.

Posted: Sun Dec 19, 2004 8:10 pm
neon snake
Veteran

Joined: 18 Mar 2004
Posts: 70
Location: Chelmsford, UK

I was actually being relevant when I started this - as in, if you look at an infinite string, you'll always see what you are looking for at some point, so it's prudent to avoid wishful thinking!

thebruce - tentatively, and waiting to be proved wrong, I disagree. Over a long enough timeline, and barring removal of naughty number 3, all possible combinations must occur. Somewhere in my maths textbooks from a decade or so ago, I have the mathematical proof. I think.
_________________
'To know, yet to think that one does not know is best. Not to know, yet to think that one knows will lead to difficulty.'
Lao Tzu

Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2004 2:15 am
Olorin
Unfettered

Joined: 04 Nov 2004
Posts: 612
Location: Gainesville, FL

 neon snake wrote: I was actually being relevant when I started this - as in, if you look at an infinite string, you'll always see what you are looking for at some point, so it's prudent to avoid wishful thinking! thebruce - tentatively, and waiting to be proved wrong, I disagree. Over a long enough timeline, and barring removal of naughty number 3, all possible combinations must occur. Somewhere in my maths textbooks from a decade or so ago, I have the mathematical proof. I think.

I think that over a long enough timeline all combinations have an equal chance of appearing.

As far as proving that all combinations *will* appear at some point,
I've never seen a proof. If you have one, I bet it uses the fact that e, pi, and such numbers are aperiodic.

F.O.R.

Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2004 6:39 am
SilentAvenger
Boot

Joined: 23 Oct 2004
Posts: 44

Assuming really each digit has an equal chance to appear, (say, not the infinite-digit number 2/3, which nothing but 6's), the chance of an exact string of digits with length N to appear, is 1/10^N.

This means that for a number with K digits, there is a 1/10^N chance for each substring of size N to be equal to the string we are trying to match, so, K-N+1 equalling the number of N sized substrings, there is chance of (K-N+1)/10^N to find a string of length N in a string of length K (actually, its slightly less, but in general this is it).

So, assuming K is infinite and N finite, this will come out as infinite, that means, you will find you string repeated infinite times, not only once

A common way to show this, is to picture a monkey on a typewriter, typing off stuff for all times. It is obvious (assuming he types letters randomly, and that the typwriter doesnt jam, as monkeys dont know how to fix jammed typewriters) that at one point he must type the full works of Shakespear, one after another, in alphabetical order.

*turns off mathmode*

Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2004 8:00 am
tanner
Entrenched

Joined: 21 May 2003
Posts: 875
Location: (x,y,z,t,i, ...)+

 Quote: Assuming really each digit has an equal chance to appear

that wasnt mentioned in the original post which is why i pointed out that infinity does not necessarily contain all.
_________________
tanner³ -- Join the PXC team on SETI@home
"And the princess and the prince discuss what's real and what is not,
But it doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden" - BD

Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2004 10:11 am
thebruce
Dances With Wikis

Joined: 16 Aug 2004
Posts: 6776
Location: Kitchener, Ontario

 SilentAvenger wrote: Assuming really each digit has an equal chance to appear, (say, not the infinite-digit number 2/3, which nothing but 6's), the chance of an exact string of digits with length N to appear, is 1/10^N. This means that for a number with K digits, there is a 1/10^N chance for each substring of size N to be equal to the string we are trying to match, so, K-N+1 equalling the number of N sized substrings, there is chance of (K-N+1)/10^N to find a string of length N in a string of length K (actually, its slightly less, but in general this is it). So, assuming K is infinite and N finite, this will come out as infinite, that means, you will find you string repeated infinite times, not only once A common way to show this, is to picture a monkey on a typewriter, typing off stuff for all times. It is obvious (assuming he types letters randomly, and that the typwriter doesnt jam, as monkeys dont know how to fix jammed typewriters) that at one point he must type the full works of Shakespear, one after another, in alphabetical order. *turns off mathmode*

However, correct me if I'm wrong, I still believe that there's an equal chance that a sequence will appear as there is it will never appear... theoretically, given a sequence of random numbers, and in infinite length of random numbers, I believe the chance would become a matter of approaching 100%, or approaching 0%... in other words, depending on how you look at it, there is still always going to be a chance that any specific sequence may never appear. just as there will never be a 100% certainty that it will appear... so technically, in dealing with infinite chances, math is pointless
_________________
@4DFiction/@Wikibruce/Contact
ARGFest 2012 - Toronto was awesome! ARGFest.com

Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2004 10:14 am
thebruce
Dances With Wikis

Joined: 16 Aug 2004
Posts: 6776
Location: Kitchener, Ontario

I'll also add that the chance of e being a non-repeating infinite number in essence also becomes a matter of approaching 0%... but it will never be 0, because that would require a finite number to calculate the bounds... in essence, we'll never know if e is an infinite non-repeating number, if it is in fact just that.
_________________
@4DFiction/@Wikibruce/Contact
ARGFest 2012 - Toronto was awesome! ARGFest.com

Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2004 10:18 am
tanner
Entrenched

Joined: 21 May 2003
Posts: 875
Location: (x,y,z,t,i, ...)+

if it were repeating it would be a rational number --- e is not only irrational but transcendental

see

http://www.math.rochester.edu/people/grads/micah/Trans.pdf

for proof
_________________
tanner³ -- Join the PXC team on SETI@home
"And the princess and the prince discuss what's real and what is not,
But it doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden" - BD

Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2004 10:25 am
darkblaze
Boot

Joined: 22 Oct 2004
Posts: 63
Location: US, North Carolina

all these numbers make me think about phi (its my favorite number!) theres an article in the guardian about it too but that was almost 2 years ago..
_________________
Insanity is merely anarchy af the mind.
www.glimpsemymind.blogspot.com

Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2004 12:53 pm
am520dj
Veteran

Joined: 18 Oct 2004
Posts: 135
Location: United States

ow, math, numbers, getting headache...
_________________
.::am520dj::.

Posted: Mon Dec 20, 2004 4:20 pm
neon snake
Veteran

Joined: 18 Mar 2004
Posts: 70
Location: Chelmsford, UK

 Quote: If you have one, I bet it uses the fact that e, pi, and such numbers are aperiodic.

Yep, exactly that.

 Quote: Assuming really each digit has an equal chance to appear

As long as each digit has a chance, regardless of how small the chance is, it still works - even if its one in a million, well, infinity is a hell of lot larger than that!
_________________
'To know, yet to think that one does not know is best. Not to know, yet to think that one knows will lead to difficulty.'
Lao Tzu

Posted: Tue Dec 21, 2004 3:49 am
Shish
Boot

Joined: 24 Nov 2004
Posts: 51

I'm bored. Have some cents.

o) Any infinite random number will contain all finite number series
o) Any infinite non-repeating number will contain all finite number series
o) It's possible to have a non-repeating infinite number with a pattern like 123112233111222333 which will never contain the sequence "13"
o) It's possible for a random number generator to come up with the above pattern
o) perhaps the first two statements work if we also specify that it must be a patternless, unpredictable random number? Eg you can predict that the number after 1 will not be 3, and for it to be patternelss and unpredictable you must be wrong at some time.

One thinks this boils down to infinite force vs infinite wall: for a number to be random it must be unpredictable, and yet a RNG can come up with any series of numbers, including one with a pattern that has no 13. Using the first two unprovable statements, however, we can argue that for it to be random and infinite, it must at some point contain 13:

The chance of getting a one then a three is 1/9 * 1/9; 1/81. Given infinite chances and you get inf/81, aka infinite chance of it happening.

So which wins? the "all numbers must appear at some point" or the "if you can successfully predict that it'll happen, it isn't random"? Or, like the infinite force, are we thinking outside all the boxes, including that of reality?
_________________
#syzygy stats + searchable logs

Posted: Tue Dec 21, 2004 7:50 am
thebruce
Dances With Wikis

Joined: 16 Aug 2004
Posts: 6776
Location: Kitchener, Ontario

I still choose to believe that if a chance ever approaches 100% (or 0%) but never reaches it, then you may as well throw the argument out the window... if there's never a definite chance a sequence will appear, then essentially, there's always a chance it won't appear, so as you march on towards infinity, there's always a chance it will never appear just as much as there's a chance it will appear... infinite chances aren't arguable, afaic

with a limit to the length of a random number, you can, and never will, know whether or not a sequence will appear or not. "Until you find the sequence" already assumes it will exist. If you never find it, it doesn't mean it will never appear, but it doesn't mean it will. So I agree, as soon as you say a sequence has a specific chance to appear, you claim to either know that the number is repeating (and have therefore uncovered the entire set of numbers) or know that it's not an infinite number - ie, you've reached the bounds in order to calculate a specific chance. An infinite number, by default has no bounds, therefore a chance can't be mathematically calculated... a theoretica chance could (whatever the term may be), but it's theoretical... like 'as x approaches 10' - for all intents and purposes, we know x will never pass 10 and it will pass all decimal values up to 10, but we know x will never actually be 10... making 10 the theoretical maximum of x, even though x will never be 10...

math & infinity is a strange thing
_________________
@4DFiction/@Wikibruce/Contact
ARGFest 2012 - Toronto was awesome! ARGFest.com

Posted: Tue Dec 21, 2004 8:43 am
tanner
Entrenched

Joined: 21 May 2003
Posts: 875
Location: (x,y,z,t,i, ...)+

 Quote: I still choose to believe that if a chance ever approaches 100% (or 0%) but never reaches it

hmmm

99.999999... approaches 100 but never reaches it you say? (as an example)

well if:
x = 99.999999... (approaching 100)
10x = 999.999999...
10x - x = 900.000000...
10x - x = 900
x = 100

x has reached number 100

.but maybe this should be persued elsewhere --- OOG
_________________
tanner³ -- Join the PXC team on SETI@home
"And the princess and the prince discuss what's real and what is not,
But it doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden" - BD

Posted: Tue Dec 21, 2004 9:57 am
Display posts from previous:   Sort by:
 Page 2 of 15 [225 Posts] Goto page: Previous 1, 2, 3, 4, ..., 13, 14, 15  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15  Next
 Jump to: Select a forum ------------------- Forum index |___ Updates |   |___ News & Rumors |   |___ Press and Other Analysis |   |___ Unfiction.com |     |___ Chaotic Fiction |   |___ 39 Clues |   |___ Elsewhere Philatelic Society |   |___ Flynn Lives |   |___ Marble Hornets |   |___ Slender Man Mythos |   |___ Test Subjects Needed |   |___ We Lost Our Gold |     |___ Diversions |   |___ TimeWasters |   |___ The Master Theorem |   |___ Perplex City Puzzle Cards |   |   |___ PXC Puzzle Cards - Questions, Meta and Sub-puzzles |   |   |___ PXC: Puzzle Card Map |   |   |___ PXC: Red Puzzle Cards |   |   |___ PXC: Orange Puzzle Cards |   |   |___ PXC: Yellow Puzzle Cards |   |   |___ PXC: Green Puzzle Cards |   |   |___ PXC: Blue Puzzle Cards |   |   |___ PXC: Purple Puzzle Cards |   |   |___ PXC: Black Puzzle Cards |   |   |___ PXC: Silver Puzzle Cards |   |     |   |___ Console/Video Game Discussion |   |___ Social Interactions |     |___ Meta |   |___ General META Discussion |   |___ Glossary |   |___ Online Tools |   |___ Player Help |   |___ Puppetmaster Help |   |___ Various & Sundry |   |___ Rest in Pieces |     |___ Administration |   |___ Terms of Service |   |___ Announcements |   |___ General |     |___ Archive     |___ Archive: Ephemeral     |   |___ ARG: Aporia Agathon     |   |___ ARG: Bristel Goodman     |   |___ ARG: Eldritch Errors     |   |___ ARG: EDOC Laundry     |   |___ ARG: Intimation     |   |___ ARG: Year Zero     |   |___ CF: Studio Cypher     |         |___ Archive: General     |   |___ Old News & Rumors     |   |___ Low-Volume Games     |   |___ ARG: 48 Hours in Purgatory     |   |___ ARG: Acheron     |   |___ ARG: Alias v2.0     |   |___ ARG: Alias:Omnifam     |   |___ ARG: Angels and Daemons (AKA Jibril of God)     |   |___ ARG: Another Contest Worth Entering     |   |___ ARG: Anyone Seen James?     |   |___ ARG: Ares Station     |   |___ ARG: ARGtalk     |   |___ ARG: Aware     |   |___ ARG: The Baldulc Will Rise     |   |___ ARG: Beacon of Light / Shadow in the Darkness     |   |___ ARG: The Carer     |   |___ ARG: Channel 51     |   |___ ARG: City of Domes     |   |___ ARG: Conspiracy for Good     |   |___ ARG: Cult of Adramelech     |   |___ ARG: DaemonWorks     |   |___ ARG: The Dark Knight     |   |___ ARG: District 9     |   |___ ARG: Eight Days, Thirteen Lights, 42 hours (8/13/42)     |   |___ ARG: Enoch of Gatewood     |   |___ ARG: Fringe     |   |___ ARG: Find the Lost Ring     |   |___ ARG: Free! Psychic Readings     |   |___ ARG: Geist     |   |___ ARG: Go! (QND)     |   |___ ARG: Hallucinine     |   |___ ARG: Institute for Future Medicine     |   |___ ARG: Institute for Human Continuity     |   |___ ARG: Iris (Halo 3)     |   |___ ARG: The Jejune Institute     |   |___ ARG: Junko Junsui     |   |___ ARG: Legend of the Sacred Urns     |   |___ ARG: LegionPharma (Sin2)     |   |___ ARG: Lenny's Xanga     |   |___ ARG: Lonelygirl15 / OpAphid     |   |___ ARG: Looking for AV     |   |___ ARG: The Lost Experience 3     |   |___ ARG: The Matrix Is Real     |   |___ ARG: Metacortechs Reloaded     |   |___ ARG: (Mnemosyne and) The Widow's Son     |   |___ ARG: Monster Hunter Club     |   |___ ARG: NoahBoddy     |   |___ ARG: Ny Takma     |   |___ ARG: Ocular Effect     |   |___ ARG: O.P. Smith     |   |___ ARG: PandoraNext     |   |___ ARG: Project Abraham     |   |___ ARG: Project Gateway     |   |___ ARG: Purity Towers     |   |___ ARG: QU13E     |   |___ ARG: Regenesis     |   |___ ARG: Rookery Tower     |   |___ ARG: Sable & Shuck     |   |___ ARG: Sammeeeees     |   |___ ARG: Sammeeeees II     |   |___ ARG: Sarah Kiddo     |   |___ ARG: Search4E     |   |___ ARG: Silver Ladder     |   |___ ARG: Slumberil     |   |___ ARG: Something in the Sea     |   |___ ARG: Strange Dreams Pt. 1 & 2     |   |___ ARG: SubCity Central     |   |___ ARG: Super 8     |   |___ ARG: This Is My Milwaukee     |   |___ ARG: Tom Tooman     |   |___ ARG: Township Heights (Virtuquest 6.5 Open)     |   |___ ARG: Tranquil Valley     |   |___ ARG: UnholyMovie     |   |___ ARG: World Without Oil     |   |___ ARG: VaporLofts     |   |___ ARG: Virtuquest (ALL)     |   |___ ARG: Voices in the Static     |   |___ ARG: Who Is Benjamin Stove     |   |___ ARG: Zoe's World     |   |___ Zombie Truth     |   |___ CF: The Human Pet     |   |___ GAME: Our Colony     |   |___ GAME: PoTC and Volvo     |   |___ GAME: The Hunt 2 (Pirates of the Caribbean)     |   |___ GAME: Push, NV     |   |___ GAME: Save My Husband     |   |___ GAME: TerraQuest     |   |___ GAME: TimeHunt     |   |___ GAME: Vanishing Point     |   |___ GAME: Virtucube     |   |___ GROUP READ: Daughters of Freya (Aug. 1-23)     |   |___ Non-ARG: Project Gateway 2     |   |___ TRAIL: Soogees     |   |___ Timewaster: Red Kore     |   |___ Timewaster: Triskabiblios     |   |___ ZOMGWTFBBQ: Eon8     |         |___ Archive: Cloverfield (1-18-08)     |   |___ Cloverfield: General / Updates     |   |___ Cloverfield: Reference / Press / Questions     |   |___ Cloverfield: Social / OT / Humor     |         |___ Archive: Deus City     |   |___ DC: General, Updates, and Meta     |   |___ DC: Deus City     |   |___ DC: tCotSA     |         |___ Archive: Perplex City     |   |___ PXC: General/Updates     |   |___ PXC: Quick Reference     |   |___ PXC: Questions/Meta     |   |___ PXC: Puzzles     |   |___ PXC: Project Syzygy Pre-Game     |         |___ Archive: Catching the Wish (CTW2)     |   |___ CTW2: General/Updates     |   |___ CTW2: Puzzles     |   |___ CTW2: Interactions     |   |___ CTW2: Quick Ref, Questions, and Meta     |         |___ Archive: The Lost Experience     |   |___ TLE: General, Updates, Spec, & Info     |   |___ TLE: META, OT, and Social Interactions     |         |___ Archive: Orbital Colony     |   |___ Orbital Colony: General/Updates     |   |___ Orbital Colony: Quick Reference     |   |___ Orbital Colony: In-Game Interactions     |   |___ Orbital Colony: Meta/Questions     |         |___ Archive: Last Call Poker     |   |___ LCP: General/Updates     |   |___ LCP: Quick Reference     |   |___ LCP: In-Game Interactions     |   |___ LCP: Meta/Questions, Social Fun, & Poker Help     |         |___ Archive: The Art of the Heist     |   |___ The Art of the Heist: General/Updates     |   |___ The Art of the Heist: Puzzles     |   |___ The Art of the Heist: Interactions     |   |___ The Art of the Heist: Questions/Meta     |         |___ Archive: Wildfire Industries     |   |___ WI: General/Updates     |   |___ WI: Synagoga     |   |___ WI: Wildfire Industries     |         |___ Archive: The Haunted Apiary (Let Op!)     |   |___ The Haunted Apiary (Let Op!): General/Updates     |   |___ The Haunted Apiary (Let Op!): Quick Reference     |   |___ The Haunted Apiary (Let Op!): Interaction     |   |___ The Haunted Apiary (Let Op!): Axon Coordination     |   |___ The Haunted Apiary (Let Op!): Puzzles     |   |___ The Haunted Apiary (Let Op!): Questions/Meta     |         |___ Archive: Urban Hunt     |   |___ Urban Hunt: General/Updates     |   |___ Urban Hunt: Quick Reference     |   |___ Urban Hunt: Interaction     |   |___ Urban Hunt: Puzzles     |         |___ Archive: MetaCortechs     |   |___ MetaCortechs: General/Updates     |   |___ MetaCortechs: Quick Reference     |   |___ MetaCortechs: Interaction     |   |___ MetaCortechs: Puzzles     |         |___ Archive: Chasing the Wish         |___ CTW: General/Updates         |___ CTW: Quick Reference         |___ CTW: Puzzles         |___ CTW: Interaction         |___ CTW: Pre-Game

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum
You cannot post calendar events in this forum

 Like this site and want to support it?

Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group