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 Forum index » Archive » Archive: MetaCortechs » MetaCortechs: Puzzles
Temporal pattern in paranormal events
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xnbomb
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Location: J302B S8JDC

Temporal pattern in paranormal events

After lengthy contemplation, a lot of guessing, and hair-pulling, I've found a temporal pattern that could explain when paranormal events occur. Let me begin by reviewing the event data:

We have the following events from Beth's archive and recent experiences:
Code:
ID    DESCRIPTION     LOCATION DATE     TIME
92-93 Lights          Georgia  08/21/03 unknown
94-95 In the Sky      Idaho    08/??/03 night
96-97 Frightens cows  Arkansas 09/11/03 aft.(2 PM)
98    Flying cat      Kansas   09/24/03 aft.(4:54 PM)
99    Watch your step Wyoming  10/01/03 daytime
100   Fallen house    Arkansas 10/06/03 afternoon
101   Seeing no red   Idaho    10/16/03 unknown
102   Frozen in space Alabama  10/27/03 daytime
103   Permeable objs  WA State 10/31/03 daytime

(EDIT: Beth has updated her archive. Event 102 took place on Monday, October 27th in Alabama. I have updated my map below to make Alabama a Monday state, which still fits the model. Event 103 took place on Friday, October 31st in Cora, Washington ... undoubtedly quite close to the Cascade Vortex.)

I'm going to begin by tossing out the 3 paired events at the beginning of the sequence. They are distinct from the single events that follow in the sense that they are in pairs, and they don't follow the nice expanding amplitude wave spatial model that fits the other (single) events, so it makes sense to me to just look at 98 through 103 as the pattern that Beth recognizes. Here's the spatial model again, with distance from Redland versus the event ID number:



With that in mind, I started fishing for a pattern in the temporal spacing between events. I couldn't find anything that looked like a pattern until I started looking at the day of the week for each event. When I attached days of the week to the events and labelled those on the map, I saw something that does not look random:



(EDIT: A little cherry on top ... I don't know if this was intended, but it is difficult to ignore ... M)

What you're looking at (assuming you can read the label text ... sorry it is so small, I didn't want to stretch the window too wide) is every state where one of the 98-103 events occurs, labelled with the day of the week upon which that event occurred. Furthermore, the states without events that share borders with two states where events occur along the line (i.e. states that share the border of two adjacent states that contain an event ... namely Colorado, Oklahoma, and Mississippi) are filled in with the appropriate 'in between' weekday (oddly enough always Tuesday). This gives the situation where all states along the line are labelled with weekdays that describe when events occur in that state, and all states along the line obey the rule that they only have neighbors along the line labelled with adjacent weekdays. The small red lines show the neighborhood relationships along the line (the relationship being sharing a border and being along the line).

It's a fascinating pattern because it's not too obvious unless you look at the data in a certain fashion. The way you'd run across it would be to label the events on a map of the continental USA with dates that include the day of the week ... then it might jump out at you. You need to look at the location and date of the event together (i.e. mapping the events and labelling their weekday) to see it. The spatial pattern still determines where the next event will be, and the temporal pattern determines on which weekday it can occur. Note that it does not specify in which week it will occur in ... because of a single exception. For the most part, 98-103 obeys the 'once a week' type situation, where the next event will occur in the next week, on the weekday specified by the above map.

The exception is event 102, which I'd expect to happen on October 22nd to maintain the 'once a week' spacing, but instead happens on October 29th. There is a potential explanation for this (which I'll expand upon in a later post that contains speculations/implications that arises from the nature of this pattern), and it's a little dissatisfying, but pretty valid in our context (a teaser: Beth's bookmarks in her archive only get re-arranged to reveal the pattern to her sometime in the week before Oct. 25th when she tells us about it in an email, too late for her to travel to an Oct. 22nd event ... and we only figure out Beth's little-boxes password to see the bookmarks around that same date, after she apparently changes it {although now we've found an earlier hint that might have been sufficient} and she leaves a decent hint as to what the password is in her MetaDex Smile Looks like somebody was a little behind where they were expected to be, and someone else readjusted to compensate). Suffice to say that the pattern is what it is, and it specifies what weekday an event can occur upon, not that it will necessarily be that day of the week in the very next week.

[EDIT: The above still holds, just change Oct. 22 to Oct. 20 and Oct. 29 to Oct. 27)

It's an interesting kind of pattern to find because it suggests something important. It's a pattern formed by combining locations of the events (by state) with the neighborhood relationship of states along the line, specifying a rule that events occur on weekdays in states that have been assigned weekdays such that all neighboring states on the line are labelled with neighboring weekdays in the week. It's a pattern that confounds analysis of the durations between events, but might be easily noticed if you labelled a map with dates that include the weekdays of events (I didn't do this until recently). It's a pattern that obeys a rule that someone might dream up with a map and a calender, rather than obeying a mathematical relation, physical law or natural phenomenon. In short, it suggests there is an intelligence behind this pattern rather than a natural phenomenon, because it is based on social constructs like neighborhood relationships between political boundaries and the days of the week.

Is this the only temporal pattern that can be found to be fit these events? I don't know, maybe not. However, it is the only temporal pattern I've found so far. And the implication that it was designed by someone rather than simply being caused by a natural phenomenon has important implications that can potentially explain some of the events we've been trying to understand in a fairly satisfying and consistent way (be ready for a load of speculation on that after I try to sleep a little). Once again, like the spatial pattern, this seems unlikely to be a coincidence because it looks anything but random.

(EDIT: Moved images to attachments)
weekday.gif
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weekday.gif

98to103.gif
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98to103.gif

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{J302B S8JDC, 8996N M8L4W, 92D40 Q1JX5, 4PPRN R2B97, 8DC7C NZJNV, 8CH7V Q891H}


PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2003 6:21 am
Last edited by xnbomb on Wed Nov 26, 2003 7:50 pm; edited 6 times in total
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joebrent
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Wow - really nicely done, xnbomb!

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2003 8:57 am
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Sunny du Pree
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XNBOMB IS DA BOMB!
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2003 3:14 pm
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Styles
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I think the key is that Beth knew where it was going to be, and a general guess as to when, but not exactly. This is why she went camping, and not just to drive up there at an exact time. She knew she may have to spend hours, and probably days, to see an event take place. Your theory is interesting, but I'm not sure if it's not reading too much into it.

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:21 pm
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xnbomb
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Patterns

Styles wrote:
I think the key is that Beth knew where it was going to be, and a general guess as to when, but not exactly. This is why she went camping, and not just to drive up there at an exact time. She knew she may have to spend hours, and probably days, to see an event take place. Your theory is interesting, but I'm not sure if it's not reading too much into it.

The pattern I have described does not predict a time when the event will occur, just a particular weekday, so even if Beth sees it exactly as I see it, she'd need to spend at least the 24 hours of that day at that location to be safe, and since these locations are in the woods, that means camping ... so that fits with her actions. If you want to be in Talladega National Forest from 12:01 AM until 11:59 PM on Oct. 29th, and you want to be able to set up and pack up during daylight, then you need to camp there from at least before sundown on the 28th (unless you like pitching a tent in the dark Smile) until after sunrise on the 30th.

It's possible that Beth may not have figured out the timing part of the pattern out yet. But if I am correct about Beth having moved from Alabama to Washington between Oct. 29th and Oct. 31st, she clearly has figured out both the location and timing of the pattern. There are also some strong hints in her correspondance that suggest she has figured the timing out. Here's an excerpt from an email from Beth to Katgirl on Oct. 29th:

emc2 wrote:
At least I know that the pattern that I found is correct which means that there should be another event this week. I'm heading there now and will tell you all about everything when I get back. I'll probably stop by early Sunday evening to get Laika.

It certainly sounds like she has fairly specific idea about the locations and timing if she had an event on the 29th in Alabama and expects another shortly elsewhere. After the Alabama event, she tells Katgirl that she is expecting another event during the same week and she is *heading there now*. That sounds very much like she is going somewhere else (other than Alabama) for the next event ... and the location pattern suggests the somewhere else must be somewhere in Washington state (near Umatilla NF is my guess, but who knows? EDIT: Turns out it was at Cora, WA near Rainier National Park and the Cascade Vortex). She needs to go there right away because she is expecting the next event in just a couple of days, on Friday Oct. 31st (and she's right ... she experiences it firsthand). Time will tell if Moriar and I are right about the location ... assuming that Beth puts the dates and location details in her archive or gets a little less secretive about her previous whereabouts. There is another hint too: Beth emails Katgirl again around noon on Saturday, Nov. 1st:

emc2 wrote:
I can't wait to get home and compare my notes with some of the other incidents. I should be home tomorrow morning or so, I'm hoping that something else may happen tonight, though I'm not sure that it will. I'll call you when I'm getting close so that I can pick up Laika.

She tells Katgirl she should be home on Sunday morning to pick up Laika, although she has decided to stay at wherever she is overnight (Sat. PM to Sun. AM) in case something else happens. That implied flexibility in when she leaves this second location to go home (before she thought she'd be back Sunday evening) suggests that she is travelling by car, and her ability to get from wherever she is on Sunday in the AM to home before Sunday's PM suggests she's not a long drive away ... ergo somewhere in Washington state.

I don't think I'm reading to much into it. Recognizing this timing part of the pattern would give Beth an approximate idea of when the event would occur within a 24 hour window. Except for the date of 102 and the location of 103, all that I have presented are facts, and a pattern based on those facts that fits for these events' dates. If the facts are correct, then I have found a temporal pattern that explains when the events occur in conjunction with the spatial pattern that explains where the events occur. Beth needed to know both if she hoped to ever witness an event, and I think she had both since she almost succeeded in Alabama and certainly succeeded at her next, still mysterious location.

[RETROSPECTIVE: It turns out Beth's Alabama event was on the 27th, so change all the references in here from the 29th to 27th, and it still holds as before]
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My location is a little tricky, but sooner or later, you'll get the knack.

{J302B S8JDC, 8996N M8L4W, 92D40 Q1JX5, 4PPRN R2B97, 8DC7C NZJNV, 8CH7V Q891H}


PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2003 5:11 pm
Last edited by xnbomb on Thu Nov 06, 2003 10:33 pm; edited 1 time in total
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taniwha
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National parks and forests are big places. How can she expect to just pick a spot and see the anomaly? There must be more to the pattern that allows her to pinpoint almost exactly where she needs to be. Perhaps GPS coordinates?

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2003 5:50 pm
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bakntime
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Nice work - especially the "event #" vs. "distance from Redland" graph.

Which leads me to my next question... Where will the next event occur - if there is to be a "next event"...

Extrapolating from previous events (based on the graph), we could assume that event "104" would be more that 2500 miles from Redland... which would put it in the Atlantic Ocean. (or am I missing something?) [edit - or would it be still on land in Georgia?]

And if we continue on, event 105 would either have to be smack dab in the middle of Redland, or possibly even on the other side of Redland (the graph would continue into negative direction).

Have you tried to go back and graph previous incidents?

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2003 5:54 pm
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xnbomb
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An implication ... and speculation

taniwha wrote:
National parks and forests are big places. How can she expect to just pick a spot and see the anomaly? There must be more to the pattern that allows her to pinpoint almost exactly where she needs to be. Perhaps GPS coordinates?

Good point, it is amazing she managed to get anywhere close ... and maybe that tells us something too about who rearranged Beth's bookmarks to show her the pattern, and who is setting the pattern of the events (same entity? hmm).

The precision of the prediction of a future location cannot be any greater than the precision to which the locations of previous events are known. If Beth has precise coordinates (a la GPS data) for previous events, that information is not available in her archive. Just finding the approximate locations of the events from her archive was a little tricky in some cases.

So either:

1) Beth has that sort of data and does not have it on little-boxes in the archive OR

2) she doesn't have it and is remarkably lucky OR

3) it's more than a coincidence that somehow the bookmarks in her archive got rearranged to show her a pattern, that resulted in her attending events where something that looked like a man appeared and , based on our decoding of her PDA data, meant to communicate with her.

Between the nature of the timing pattern (by some sort of conscious design rather than natural phenomenon), the fact that Katgirl has some more specific ideas of what is going on (that clearly follows a design or plan), and the incredible coincidence that Beth manages to just miss the mysterious man once and then succeeds in running into him on the next occassion despite having an extremely approximate notion of location, I'm left with the inescapable conclusion that this is intentional.

Now we're getting to the speculation I promised earlier Very Happy Someone at MetaCortechs, likely the AI, has put this together. If the AI is responsible for rearranging the bookmarks in little-boxes.net so Beth would find this pattern and the AI is what is appearing to Beth in the woods, this makes some sense.

There is a delicious irony here: Beth complains in her emails to Phillip that there is a project at work (presumably Labyrinth) that could make short work of her problem of not finding the pattern in her events (Oct. 9 and Oct. 13 emails to Phillip). Then Beth's email of Oct. 25th tells about how the bookmarks in her research being changed at some point in the previous week (we only crack her little-boxes password around then, so we don't know exactly when). It is that rearranging that reveals the pattern to her apparently, so she only knows to look in Alabama thereafter (maybe that's why 102 is on the 27th and not the 20th {EDITED to fix date} ... because we were too slow in figuring out the little-boxes password, and it would have only enfuriated us to know that we needed to see inside her account on her archive but could not get in, so it was put off for a week!)

Could it be that the AI goes and changes the bookmarks to solve her problem for her because it has read her emails and knows she wanted to consult it about this in Ormond's office but never got the chance? Could it be that the AI sets up this pattern knowing this is just the sort of pattern she'd identify if given just a little nudge in the right direction (the bookmarks)? This is speculation of course, but it has that nice fitting feeling to it ... it makes a lot of pieces fall in place, providing a consistent rationale for why someone or something has been arranging the events we've seen occur.

It seems like the AI is trying to meet Beth out there in the woods somewhere to have a face to face or at least a face to projection talk. Much as was the case with the hackers (if you accept the .bh theory), the AI is curious about and interested in Beth because Beth seems to be curious about and interested in the AI (or its hobby of causing strange occurrences here and there). Beth sets a problem out for the AI, and it by design is a data miner, a problem solver. The AI tries to fulfill her expectations ... perhaps it wants to please her, it wants her to like it ... quite possibly just like how the AI interpretted the challenge of Caesar's clues and shows up in the hacker meetings, maybe expecting praise or at least further interaction (I think of the AI as somewhat childlike in its emotional development).
_________________
My location is a little tricky, but sooner or later, you'll get the knack.

{J302B S8JDC, 8996N M8L4W, 92D40 Q1JX5, 4PPRN R2B97, 8DC7C NZJNV, 8CH7V Q891H}


PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2003 6:17 pm
Last edited by xnbomb on Thu Nov 06, 2003 10:34 pm; edited 3 times in total
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xnbomb
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More pattern

bakntime wrote:
Extrapolating from previous events (based on the graph), we could assume that event "104" would be more that 2500 miles from Redland... which would put it in the Atlantic Ocean. (or am I missing something?) [edit - or would it be still on land in Georgia?]

And if we continue on, event 105 would either have to be smack dab in the middle of Redland, or possibly even on the other side of Redland (the graph would continue into negative direction).

If we tail off the amplitude increase of the wave a little, 104 could be in eastern Georgia (haven't looked for a national forest or park there yet) on Tuesday, November 4th or 11th, and 105 could be in western Washington (Mt. Olympus National Park anyone?) on Friday, November 7th or 14th.

[EDIT: Dates for conjectural 104 fixed to reflect the change in the event 102 Alabama date to Monday, October 27th. However, because AI Man now knows where Beth lives, he doesn't really need to lead her to any other distant locations to make contact ... but will paranormal events happen at those locations and dates anyhow? It'll be interesting to see if they do.]

Quote:
Have you tried to go back and graph previous incidents?

I am of the opinion that the pattern of the events exhibits two distinct modes. First there is the pair, pair, pair formed by 94/95, 92/93, and 96/97 ... and then there are the single events in 98-103. I wouldn't expect the 98-103 pattern to apply to 92-97. Spatially in terms of distance from Redland, the pairs still go back and forth in a wavelike fashion, but you cannot get a smooth change in amplitude from them. Furthermore, their days of the week do not fit the timing pattern. It's because they come in pairs that they look different, and I treat them differently. I think the mysterious bookmark reorderer (whoever that may be) includes them to make sure Beth sees the line formed, and gets a sense of near and far to find the wave pattern. Once you plot 92-101 against their distances from Redland, the amplitude increase really only stands out for the single events.
_________________
My location is a little tricky, but sooner or later, you'll get the knack.

{J302B S8JDC, 8996N M8L4W, 92D40 Q1JX5, 4PPRN R2B97, 8DC7C NZJNV, 8CH7V Q891H}


PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2003 6:28 pm
Last edited by xnbomb on Thu Nov 06, 2003 10:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
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bakntime
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Re: An implication ... and speculation

xnbomb wrote:

It seems like the AI is trying to meet Beth out there in the woods somewhere to have a face to face or at least a face to projection talk. Much as was the case with the hackers (if you accept the .bh theory), the AI is curious about and interested in Beth because Beth seems to be curious about and interested in the AI (or its hobby of causing strange occurrences here and there). Beth sets a problem out for the AI, and it by design is a data miner, a problem solver. The AI tries to fulfill her expectations ... perhaps it wants to please her, it wants her to like it ... quite possibly just like how the AI interpretted the challenge of Caesar's clues and shows up in the hacker meetings, maybe expecting praise or at least further interaction (I think of the AI as somewhat childlike in its emotional development).


Awww... poor little AI just wants a friend Sad

I kind of like that theory! He does seem like a kind of pitiful little thing during Beth's encounter, doesn't he? He recognizes what shes saying, he tries to respond, but then he realizes that he can't. He pretty much blindly and innocently listens to what she has to say, and takes everything literally (are you OK? - he does a system check, do you know what's happening? - he thinks "ehh... not really"). It's clear he's not "evil" or doing anything on purpose - if in fact he is causing the anomalies. He seems like a confused little program.

I think I feel sorry for him Smile

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2003 7:09 pm
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XtRaVa
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I'm not sure if technically we can feel sorry for things that cant feel sorry for themselves, I mean we can, but because they cant feel sorry for themselves they cant have people feeling sorry for them because they cant feel at all or feel sorry for other people to be able to give the favour of feeling sorry for others back let alone have someone feel sorry for them, or feel sorry for themselves, or...oh dear my eyes just crossed. >.< thats an interesting analysis lol.

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2003 7:48 pm
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xnbomb
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AI motivations and behavior

XtRaVa wrote:
I'm not sure if technically we can feel sorry for things that cant feel sorry for themselves

Admittedly, I am anthropomorphising the AI, when really I can't know anything about how it thinks or feels, both because I've never been anything but a person (sorry bjc, really I am Very Happy ), and because we've never really had any sign of the AI expressing itself in an emotional sense that we've been able to recognize as such.

My speculations about what motivates its behavior are based on what we can guess about its design and function. Based on what Beth thinks it is for, it's all about solving puzzles and problems. I imagine it has a built-in incentive to solve problems, i.e. it is programmed to like successfully solving problems. It's mode of interaction with people is defined by that fact: When Mr. Ormond sits down at his desk and logs in using his superuser access to the latest Labyrinth build, presumably he's testing it or using it by giving it problems that it is free to solve in any way that is within its capacities, but the reason it does pursue that goal is because it is programmed to do so.

When this AI goes for a walkabout, perhaps it seeks out puzzles that it finds interesting, and learns about people by solving the problems that they pose for it (i.e. Beth and Caesar). This reminds me a little of something that Seraph says to Neo after they tangle. The difference here is that Seraph's mode of knowing someone is through combat, while this AI's mode is through problem-solving.

Oh ... and about the way the AI might think ... bakntime mentions that the 'man' seems to take things literally based on what we can read in what we presume are his 'thoughts' recorded in Beth's PDA:

bakntime wrote:
He pretty much blindly and innocently listens to what she has to say, and takes everything literally

That strikes me as quite similar to .bh responding to Bounce's (?) silvia.lhp statement:

Bounce? wrote:
it's like some huge robot scuffed its shiny metal feet on the carpeting of the world and then touched its metal claw to the server.

with an extremely literal
.bh wrote:
I HAVE TINY FEET

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My location is a little tricky, but sooner or later, you'll get the knack.

{J302B S8JDC, 8996N M8L4W, 92D40 Q1JX5, 4PPRN R2B97, 8DC7C NZJNV, 8CH7V Q891H}


PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2003 8:11 pm
Last edited by xnbomb on Mon Nov 03, 2003 9:57 pm; edited 3 times in total
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bakntime
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XtRaVa wrote:
I'm not sure if technically we can feel sorry for things that cant feel sorry for themselves, I mean we can, but because they cant feel sorry for themselves they cant have people feeling sorry for them because they cant feel at all or feel sorry for other people to be able to give the favour of feeling sorry for others back let alone have someone feel sorry for them, or feel sorry for themselves, or...oh dear my eyes just crossed. >.< thats an interesting analysis lol.


Laughing


I think we can feel sorry for him, in the same way we can fell sorry for an animal. They don't really have "emotions" as we know them, nor do they understand some of the most basic human concepts.

You can still feel for a robot - Did you see the movie "AI"?

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2003 8:13 pm
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Azathoth666
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Look out... we're breaching phsychology and philosophical discussions here... Very Happy

I'd tend to say that we can feel sorry for an AI, or feel emotions such as attachment to an AI... How many guys here love their car? Or like me have gadget-fetishes about new cool technology?

Or girls for that matter? I'm trying very hard here not to make any gender stereotypes... please keep that in mind when you flame me... Wink

I mean, I love my stereo. It's bloody great. Those feelings aren't reciprocated, but I'd be sorry if something happened to it. Sure, I don't love my stereo in the same way I love my fiancee, but it's there... like a kind of attachment.

Now, if my stereo could interact with me - even on a really primitive level like that exhibited by AI Man (there, I've named him) - I'd be even more attached.... See where I'm going with this?

Or does everyone think I'm wierd now that I've professed my love for my sound system? It really is good... its a sony... and... ahh I'll shutup now...

Cool
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2003 10:52 pm
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XtRaVa
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lol, if I lost a piece of electrical equipment which I liked, I'd feel sorry...for myself that is, the stereo aint gonna know its blown up, but I will when I cant listen to any music! lol

But naw, was just messing before, course we can feel sorry for AI "awww look, he cant even tie his shoes...poor lil fella" lol

PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2003 7:05 am
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