unforum  a.r.g.b.b    Calendar    FAQ    Search    Memberlist    Usergroups    Register    Log in    Welcome! New users, PLEASE read these forum guidelines. New posters, SEARCH before posting and read these rules before posting your killer new campaign. New players may also wish to peruse the ARG Player Tutorial. All users must abide by the Terms of Service. This week sponsored by: You? Why do we need your help? Announcements What is an ARG? Read imbri's Quickstart Guide Our Esteemed Contributors   The time now is Mon May 20, 2013 9:19 pm All times are UTC - 6 View posts in this forum since last visit View unanswered posts in this forum Calendar  Calendar Sun 19 May 2013 Mon 20 May 2013 Tue 21 May 2013 Wed 22 May 2013 Thu 23 May 2013 Fri 24 May 2013 Sat 25 May 2013  Forum index » Diversions » Perplex City Puzzle Cards » PXC: Purple Puzzle Cards #174 - Purple -Jaunty Paul Post a reply     Username Confirmation code Subject Subject description Message icons No icon Message body Emoticons View more Emoticons  Font colour: Default Dark Red Red Orange Brown Yellow Green Olive Cyan Blue Dark Blue Indigo Violet White Black  Font size: Font size Tiny Small Normal Large Huge Close Tags [quote="hobyrne"]Okay, since this _is_ a confusing issue, here is a worked-out example. The three prizes are: Goat 1, Goat 2, Yacht. Making a distinction between the goats is important. If you flip two coins, there are three outcomes: two heads, one heads and one tails, two tails. If you flip a nickel and a dime, there are four outcomes: nickel heads & dime heads, nickel heads & dime tails, nikel tails & dime heads, nickel tails & dime tails. Monty Hall has the following instructions: If the person chooses Goat 1, let him have it. If the persion chooses Goat 2, open the door with Goat 1. If the person chooses the yacht, open the door with Goat 1. Chooses goat 1: Happens 1/3 of the time. Contestant loses. Chooses goat 2: Happens 1/3 of the time. Contestant gets choice: wins if he switches. Chooses yacht: Happens 1/3 of the time. Contestant gets choice: wins if he doesn't switch. So, the contestant gets a choice 2/3 of the time. HALF of those times he gets a choice, he should switch, HALF of the times he gets a choice, he shouldn't switch. BTW: Interesting end note. If the contestants switch half the time, the overall chance of winning the prize is 1/3... exactly the same as if this little game were done away with and he just always got his first choice. The extra game is just for show, to make it *seem* more exciting for TV.[/quote] Options HTML is ON BBCode is ON Smilies are ON Disable HTML in this post Disable BBCode in this post Disable Smilies in this post  Forum index » Diversions » Perplex City Puzzle Cards » PXC: Purple Puzzle Cards Topic review Back to top Like this site and want to support it? Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group